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Economic policy | 01-Jul-2019

Oxford and Fudan University Summer School Lectures

In July and August Graeme Leach will deliver a series of lectures on the Economics of Brexit at a number of Chinese University summer schools to be held at Oxford University's Harris-Manchester College.

 

Economic outlook | 03-Jun-2019

Shadow Monetary Policy Committee - Interest rates

Graeme Leach is a member of the IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee and in his latest June vote argued for no change in monetary policy, keeping interest rates and quantitative easing unchanged. However, Graeme is becoming increasingly concerned about the weakness of overall money supply growth and the threat this poses to the economy in the second half of 2019 and into 2020. Combined with the political and economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the next move in interest rates could well be down not up.

 

Economic policy | 01-May-2019

Department for International Trade

Graeme Leach chaired a Department for International Trade conference at the Mansion House in London on 29th April. Amongst the speakers was the Secretary of State, the Rt Hon. Liam Fox.

 

Economic outlook | 05-Apr-2019

The Debt Threat to the World Economy

Graeme Leach gave a lecture to graduate students at the Cardiff University Business School. The lecture examined public and private debt and the systemic threats posed by China, the Euro-zone and Wall Street.

 

Economic policy | 20-Dec-2018

Shadow Monetary Policy Committee

Graeme Leach is a member of the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC), and in the latest monetary policy decision, voted for no change in interest rates or quantitative easing. The reason for the 'no change' vote was twofold: (1) Continued economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit. (2) Perhaps more significantly, the sharp slowdown in broad money supply M4X growth over the course of 2018, which suggests the economy is weakening.

 

Futures thinking | 11-Dec-2018

The future of work

Graeme Leach spoke alongside Lord Griffiths of Fforestfach, and Chief Executive of the RSA, Matthew Taylor, at the Centre for Enterprise, Markets & Ethics (CEME) Future of Work symposium.

 

Economic policy | 17-Oct-2018

Global Commission on Economic Openness

Graeme Leach spoke alongside the world renowned economist, Hernando De Soto, and the CEO of TATA (in Europe) David Landsman, at the launch of the Legatum Institute's Global Index of Economic Openness (GIEO) on 16th October. Graeme spoke on the importance of economic openness to the development of global trade, and he is a member of the Legatum Institute's Commission on Economic Openness.

 

News | 28-Sep-2018

2018 SSA UK & FEDESSA annual conference

Graeme Leach gave the keynote economic and geopolitics speech at the SSA UK and FEDESSA annual conference at the Marriott Rive Gauche Hotel in Paris. Graeme spoke on: (1) Brexit - where do we go from here? (2) The economic outlook for the UK and European economies to 2020. (3) The long-term outlook for the global economy in the 2020s, and the race to maximise the amazing economic potential from technology, whilst minimising the awesome challenges of demography, and why success or failure in this race will be determined largely by how much economic freedom countries have.

 

 

Economic policy | 16-Aug-2018

George Mason University lectures

Graeme Leach gave 2 lectures on Brexit: How we got to here and Where do we go from here? at the George Mason University graduate public policy summer school at Mansfield College, Oxford University.

 

 

Economic policy | 02-Aug-2018

Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes to raise interest rates

Graeme Leach is a member of the IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, which voted unanimously at its latest meeting to raise interest rates.

The most recent SMPC Minutes and reasons why the SMPC voted for a rate rise can be found at: www.iea.org.uk

 

Economic outlook | 12-Mar-2018

The future of the Chinese economy

Graeme Leach spoke at the Institutional Investor & Global Fixed Income Institute Annual Investment Roundtable in Amsterdam on 9th March. The prestigious annual event included a keynote by former US Secretary of State Hilary Rodham Clinton.

Graeme spoke on the Chinese economic outlook, challenging conventional wisdom and drawing out the implications for fixed income markets in the wake of the Chinese Bond Connect liberalisation of the capital account.

 

Economic policy | 15-Feb-2018

Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes to raise the base rate

Graeme Leach is a member of the IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, which voted unanimously at its latest meeting to raise interest rates. 

The SMPC Minutes and reasons why the SMPC voted for a rate rise can be found at: www.iea.org.uk

 

Economic outlook | 15-Jan-2018

The Grand Tour

Speaking at the annual BHAA conference, at the Wembley Hilton, Graeme Leach delivered the keynote speech on the outlook for the World and UK economies in 2018.

The Grand Tour explored issues such as:

  • What will normalisation look like? 
  • How worried should we be about 'late cycle froth'.
  • Will there be a China crisis?
  • Have the largest economies attained escape velocity?
  • An alternative perspective on BREXIT.
  • Corbynomics - Be afraid, be very afraid.

 

Economic policy | 22-Nov-2017

MHP Budget Breakfast

Graeme Leach spoke alongside the Rt. Hon. Iain Duncan Smith, and George Parker, Political Editor of the Financial Times, at the MHP Budget Breakfast. 

Graeme discussed the 10 economic policy challenges which need to be addressed in order to maximise the competitiveness of the UK economy.

These are: (1) How to use pre-announcements to significantly reduce the rate of Corporation Tax. (2) How to supersize the economy by downsizing the size of state. (3) How to create an enabling government. (4) How to decentralise public sector pay to the level of the school or hospital. (5) How to make housing more affordable by help to supply, not help to buy. (6) How to transform health and education from a cost to a growth opportunity. (7) How to overcome the economic malaise about UK productivity forecasts, by improving our ability to measure the intangible economy. (8) How to overcome the economic malaise around Brexit, by using a hybrid of classical free trade and gravity modelling, which switches the result from negative to positive. (9) The need for a total intervention index - tax & spend and regulation. (10) The huge error factor in OBR forecasts and why the latest forecasts could break with the past by being too pessimistic not optimistic.

 

Economic policy | 16-Nov-2017

BREXIT and the Budget

Graeme Leach chaired a pre-Budget meeting of Economists for Free Trade, on the impact of BREXIT on fiscal policy in the UK.

The main purpose of the event was to show that if the UK combined genuine free-trade, with supply side reform (de-regulation) and continued restraint in the growth of public spending, a fiscal window of opportunity would open up in the early 2020s.

A Conservative Government would likely spend it on deep cuts in Corporation Tax (say to 10% by 2025) and a reduction in the top rate of Income Tax to under 40%. Labour, in contrast, would be likely to aim the window of opportunity in the direction of higher public spending on the NHS, welfare and education.

 

 

News | 13-Oct-2017

BNY Mellon Pension Summit

Graeme Leach gave the keynote speech at the BNY Mellon Pension Summit. Building on the summit theme of 'Plain sailing or choppy waters ahead' he argued there are huge economic challenges ahead in the near term, but in the long-term a technology revolution is likely to accelerate productivity growth. He argued that for the first time in history the world is becoming a truly world economy, bringing together buyers and sellers and savers and borrowers. He argued that this is precisely the wrong moment in time to turn to populism, statism and protectionism, because economic freedom will be required to overcome the demographic challenges ahead.

 

NEWS | 07-Oct-2017

An upbeat BREXIT story

Writing for The Daily Telegraph Graeme Leach explained how BREXIT could lead to lower prices and higher productivity if the Government pursued a classical free trade policy with zero tariff and non-tariff barriers on imports to the UK from all countries. This policy recommendation stands in sharp contrast to the entire economic debate at present, which emphasises the need for zero tariff and non-tariff barriers on UK exports to the EU.

 

NEWS | 01-Oct-2017

The choice revolution

Writing for The Daily Telegraph Graeme Leach argued that the future of public services in the 21st century would be built around choice. He argued that at present we have choice in every area of our lives, except the 2 most important - our children's future and our health - which are delivered by public sector monopoly provision. Graeme argued this position would become unsustainable.

 

NEWS | 20-Sep-2017

2017 Brittelstand Symposium at Henley Business School

Graeme Leach spoke on future threats to the UK and world economy covering potential icebergs such as: (1) The risks from normalisation. (2) Global asset market bubbles. (3) The potential return of the euro crisis. (4) Will there be a China crisis? He then discussed the long-term race for economic supremacy in the 21st century and the race to gain the positive benefits of technology before the negative costs of demography kick-in.

 

NEWS | 19-Sep-2017

LMA 10th Syndicated Loans Conference at the QE2 Centre in Westminster

Speaking to over 1,000 business leaders from the Loan Market Association, Graeme Leach talked about how BREXIT could be an economic success story for the City and UK economy if the Government chooses to pursue genuine free trade with zero tariff and non-tariff barriers on imports. He set out the counter intuitive truth that a selfless, as opposed to self-interested or selfish BREXIT, is the key to economic success.