Macronomics consulting futures blog

Futures | 01-Jul-2019

Narrative forecasting

Traditional forecasting approaches have failed. We need a new simpler but much more powerful approach.

Economic outlook | 01-Jul-2019

Money matters

If you want to understand the economic outlook you have to focus on the money supply.

Economic Outlook | 04-Jun-2019

The Debt Threat - Part 3

The final blog on the debt threat looks at the risks emanating from Wall Street.

Economic Outlook | 02-May-2019

The Debt Threat - Part 2

In part 2 of our mini-series on the debt threat to the world economy we look at systemic risks in the Euro-zone.

Economic outlook | 18-Apr-2019

The Debt Threat - Part 1

In the first of 3 blogs on the debt threat we look at the risks to the world economy posed by China.

Economic policy | 20-Dec-2018

What does the economy want for Christmas?

Writing in the City AM newspaper, Graeme Leach asked: What does the economy want for Christmas? The answer, was what it always wants, but never gets, which is more economic freedom.

Economic policy | 07-Dec-2018

Number 10 and the Withdrawal Agreement

Following publication of the Withdrawal Agreement, Graeme Leach wrote for The Daily Telegraph as to why it would be unacceptable to both leavers and remainers. Number 10 attacked the article, but what it said then, is now accepted by all sides.

Economic policy | 16-Aug-2018

Monty Python and the Chequers Agreement

The 'Dead Parrot' sketch is a metaphor for the political consequences of the Chequers Agreement in the UK and EU.

Economic policy | 02-Aug-2018

We need to unleash health markets

There is a real opportunity in the 21st century to transform the NHS from a public sector problem to an enormous private sector opportunity.

Economy & geopolitics | 02-Aug-2018

The Sword of Damocles hanging over the EU

Amidst all the angst over Brexit it is easy to forget that the EU faces an existential crisis all of its own.

Economic policy | 21-Jun-2018

World Cup lessons for Brexit

We understand the overwhelming benefit of open markets in football, why not for Brexit also?

Economic policy | 07-Jun-2018

Trump's tariffically bad idea

President Trump's imposition of tariffs will harm the people he most wants to help.

Economic policy | 24-May-2018

Populism and economics in Italy

The euro crisis has been in hibernation. Is Italy about to wake it up?

Economic outlook | 13-Apr-2018

What's money telling us?

The message from global money supply figures is that global GDP growth could slow in the second half of 2019

Economic outlook | 29-Mar-2018

The Russian economy looks doomed

The Russian economy looks OK from the outside, but look deeper and it is doomed by corruption and demographics.

The long blog | 14-Mar-2018

China - the long road from perspiration to inspiration

Graeme Leach spoke at the Institutional Investor & Global Fixed Income Institute Annual Investment Roundtable in Amsterdam on 9th March. Below is a transcript of his speech.

Economic Policy | 13-Mar-2018

The Spring Statement

3 fiscal home truths highlight the still precarious outlook for the public finances.

technology and employment | 15-Feb-2018

Are the robots coming for our jobs?

Economic history teaches that new technology has been positive for employment. But in recent years the conventional wisdom has been challenged by those arguing 'this time it's different'. Are they right?

Economic worldview | 01-Feb-2018

The Great Paradox at the heart of capitalism

For capitalism to succeed profit needs to be a by-product of process.

Geopolitics | 08-Jan-2018

2018 Geopolitics

Fears over the geopolitical outlook are way overdone. The best description of the coming year is likely to be: Plus ca change plus c’est la meme chose.

Future Prosperity | 27-Nov-2017

Help to supply not help to buy

The UK housing market requires radical liberalisation of the planning system in order to make property much more affordable.

Economic outlook | 16-Nov-2017

The intangible economy

Will highly regulated economies become less and less significant, as we see more and more of the intangible economy?

Economic policy | 31-Oct-2017

Brexit: Could no deal be a good deal?

There is probably a 50:50 chance EU negotiations could breakdown without a deal. But, contrary to the conventional wisdom, might this be good for the UK economy?

Economic outlook | 20-Oct-2017

Is there a missing link to understanding poor productivity?

Why has UK productivity growth been so weak over the past 5 years?

UK economic outlook | 13-Oct-2017

The disappearance of Mr Phillips is no mystery

Weak productivity growth and weak money supply growth explain weak wage growth and relatively low inflation.

FUTURE PROSPERITY | 06-Oct-2017

Freedom makes you wealthier and happier

Politicians across the globe are disowning freedom orientated economic policies at the very moment in history when the benefits of free markets and free trade are most evident.

UK economic outlook | 20-Sep-2017

Normalisation will be far from normal

Markets have cried wolf on normalisation before, and they could again.

Future insight | 13-Sep-2017

Auto enrolment could slow the UK economy in 2018

Higher employee and employer contribution rates from April 2018 could suck purchasing power out of the economy.

Future prosperity | 01-Sep-2017

10 reasons for optimism about the future of the City

THERE is an angst hanging over the City, with fears that post-Brexit the City will be in a battle for its very survival. But there’s another much more optimistic view also.

Future Brexit | 20-Jun-2017

A selfless, self-interested or selfish Brexit?

The lesson of economic history is that a selfless trade policy is the way to maximize prosperity. Unilateral free trade reduces prices for consumers and increases competition for producers. If the UK were to pursue the selfless route, long-term prosperity would be significantly enhanced. Business needs to understand why.

Macronomics futures blog