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What's a contractionary fiscal expansion?

Economic Policy | 05-Dec-2019

What's a contractionary fiscal expansion?

As the General Election approaches we examine what the economic consequences of a Labour Government might be. We would normally avoid political comment, but Labour's economic policy is so extreme it must be commented on.

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Money matters

Economic outlook | 17-Sep-2019

Money matters

How do you spot turning points in the economy? Right now broad money growth is probably the best leading indicator for understanding the economic outlook in 2020.

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Brexit: A critical juncture?

Economic policy | 02-Aug-2019

Brexit: A critical juncture?

Are we making the right assumptions about the economic impact of a no deal Brexit? Critical junctures analysis challenges conventional wisdom and provides 10 reasons why we may be making the wrong assumptions about Brexit.

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Narrative forecasting

Futures | 01-Jul-2019

Narrative forecasting

Traditional forecasting approaches have failed. We need a new simpler but much more powerful approach.

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Could there be a second financial crisis?

Economic outlook | 17-May-2019

Could there be a second financial crisis?

There are 2 obvious potential sources for a second financial crisis - China and the Euro-zone. But both have cried wolf before and could do so again.

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Freedom makes you wealthier and happier

FUTURE PROSPERITY | 12-Apr-2019

Freedom makes you wealthier and happier

Politicians across the globe are disowning freedom orientated economic policies at the very moment in history when they should be doing the opposite.

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A selfless, self-interested or selfish Brexit?

Future Brexit | 08-Mar-2019

A selfless, self-interested or selfish Brexit?

The lesson of economic history is that a selfless trade policy is the way to maximize prosperity. Unilateral free trade reduces prices for consumers and increases competition for producers. If the UK were to pursue the selfless route, long-term prosperity would be significantly enhanced. Business needs to understand why.

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Trump's tariffically bad idea

Economic policy | 15-Feb-2019

Trump's tariffically bad idea

President Trump's tariffs will harm the people he most wants to help.

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China - the long road from perspiration to inspiration

The long blog | 14-Mar-2018

China - the long road from perspiration to inspiration


Graeme Leach spoke at the Institutional Investor & Global Fixed Income Institute Annual Investment Roundtable in Amsterdam on 9th March. Below is a transcript of his speech.

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Are the robots coming for our jobs?

technology and employment | 15-Feb-2018

Are the robots coming for our jobs?

Economic history teaches that new technology has been positive for employment. But in recent years the conventional wisdom has been challenged by those arguing 'this time it's different'. Are they right?

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The Great Paradox at the heart of capitalism

Economic worldview | 01-Feb-2018

The Great Paradox at the heart of capitalism

For capitalism to succeed profit needs to be a by-product of process.

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Help to supply not help to buy

Future Prosperity | 27-Nov-2017

Help to supply not help to buy

The UK housing market requires radical liberalisation of the planning system in order to make property much more affordable.

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The intangible economy

Economic outlook | 16-Nov-2017

The intangible economy

Will highly regulated economies become less and less significant, as we see more and more of the intangible economy?

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Is there a missing link to understanding poor productivity?

Economic outlook | 20-Oct-2017

Is there a missing link to understanding poor productivity?

Why has UK productivity growth been so weak over the past 5 years?

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The disappearance of Mr Phillips is no mystery

UK economic outlook | 13-Oct-2017

The disappearance of Mr Phillips is no mystery

Weak productivity growth and weak money supply growth explain weak wage growth and relatively low inflation.

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10 reasons for optimism about the future of the City ... with one big caveat

Future prosperity | 01-Sep-2017

10 reasons for optimism about the future of the City ... with one big caveat

THERE is an angst hanging over the City, with fears that post-Brexit the City will be in a battle for its very survival. But there’s another much more optimistic view also.

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The 21st century health economy

Economic policy | 03-Aug-2017

The 21st century health economy

There is a real opportunity in the 21st century to transform the NHS from a public sector problem to an enormous private sector opportunity.

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