Macronomics consulting futures blog

Economic outlook | 01-Jun-2020

CORONANOMICS

A new report from macronomics and Global Futures & Foresight:
Coronanomics - Scenarios for the UK economy in 2020-21

Economic outlook | 07-May-2020

The resurrection of inflation?

Lower inflation (and possibly deflation) in 2020 will be a consequence of Covid-19 from the shocks to aggregate supply and demand. However, paradoxically, the longer and deeper the economic crisis, the greater the probability of monetisation and helicopter money, leading to the resurrection of inflation in 2021-22.

Economic outlook | 07-Apr-2020

Economic lessons from previous pandemics

What can the economic impact of Spanish Flu, Asian Flu and Hong Kong Flu tell us about the economic consequences of Covid-19?

Economic outlook | 23-Mar-2020

Are Black Swans going grey?

Black Swan economic events seem to have become far more common over recent decades

Economic Policy | 05-Dec-2019

What's a contractionary fiscal expansion?

As the General Election approaches we examine what the economic consequences of a Labour Government might be.

Economic outlook | 17-Sep-2019

Money matters

How do you spot turning points in the economy? Broad money growth is a much neglected leading economic indicator.

Economic policy | 02-Aug-2019

Brexit: A critical juncture?

Are we making the right assumptions about the economic impact of a no deal Brexit? Critical junctures analysis challenges conventional wisdom and provides 10 reasons why we may be making the wrong assumptions about Brexit.

Futures | 01-Jul-2019

Narrative forecasting

Traditional forecasting approaches have failed. We need a new simpler but much more powerful approach.

Economic outlook | 17-May-2019

Could there be a second financial crisis?

There are 2 obvious potential sources for a second financial crisis - China and the Euro-zone. But both have cried wolf before and could do so again.

FUTURE PROSPERITY | 12-Apr-2019

Freedom makes you wealthier and happier

Politicians across the globe are disowning freedom orientated economic policies at the very moment in history when they should be doing the opposite.

Future Brexit | 08-Mar-2019

A selfless, self-interested or selfish Brexit?

The lesson of economic history is that a selfless trade policy is the way to maximize prosperity. Unilateral free trade reduces prices for consumers and increases competition for producers. If the UK were to pursue the selfless route, long-term prosperity would be significantly enhanced. Business needs to understand why.

Economic policy | 15-Feb-2019

Trump's tariffically bad idea

President Trump's tariffs will harm the people he most wants to help.

The long blog | 14-Mar-2018

China - the long road from perspiration to inspiration

Graeme Leach spoke at the Institutional Investor & Global Fixed Income Institute Annual Investment Roundtable in Amsterdam on 9th March. Below is a transcript of his speech.

technology and employment | 15-Feb-2018

Are the robots coming for our jobs?

Economic history teaches that new technology has been positive for employment. But in recent years the conventional wisdom has been challenged by those arguing 'this time it's different'. Are they right?

Economic worldview | 01-Feb-2018

The Great Paradox at the heart of capitalism

For capitalism to succeed profit needs to be a by-product of process.

Future Prosperity | 27-Nov-2017

Help to supply not help to buy

The UK housing market requires radical liberalisation of the planning system in order to make property much more affordable.

Economic outlook | 16-Nov-2017

The intangible economy

Will highly regulated economies become less and less significant, as we see more and more of the intangible economy?

Economic outlook | 20-Oct-2017

Is there a missing link to understanding poor productivity?

Why has UK productivity growth been so weak over the past 5 years?

UK economic outlook | 13-Oct-2017

The disappearance of Mr Phillips is no mystery

Weak productivity growth and weak money supply growth explain weak wage growth and relatively low inflation.

Future prosperity | 01-Sep-2017

10 reasons for optimism about the future of the City ... with one big caveat

THERE is an angst hanging over the City, with fears that post-Brexit the City will be in a battle for its very survival. But there’s another much more optimistic view also.

Economic policy | 03-Aug-2017

The 21st century health economy

There is a real opportunity in the 21st century to transform the NHS from a public sector problem to an enormous private sector opportunity.

Macronomics futures blog